1. Scope of the Shortage
- As of late 2024, Russia is estimated to be short of 2.6 million workers, marking a 17 % year-on-year jump, with the manufacturing sector alone missing around 391,000 workers, followed by trade, transport, and logistics roles.Українська правдаBusiness InsiderReuters
- The unemployment rate in June 2025 remained at a record-low 2.2–2.3%, indicating almost zero slack in the labour pool.The Moscow TimesIzvestia
2. Why It’s Happening
- Military mobilization and defense recruitment have shifted hundreds of thousands from civilian roles into armed forces and defense firms.Business StandardThe Bell
- Emigration following the Ukraine invasion and tightening labor migration laws have dramatically reduced migrant inflows from Central Asia and former Soviet republics.Українська правдаkonturnovosti.com
- Demographic decline and a shrinking working-age population—aggravated by low birth rates—are long‑term structural issues.en.wikipedia.orgnewgeopolitics.org
3. Effects Across the Economy
- Labour costs surged: by mid‑2025, wages accounted for over 50% of GDP, up from 46.8% the year before, squeezing corporate profits.The Moscow TimesThe Bell
- With vacancies outnumbering available workers (e.g. 9 job openings per unemployed person in some regions), projects are delayed or canceled due to inability to hire.Business StandardThe Moscow Times
- Transportation networks suffer: in some cities, driver shortages hit 40%, causing route cancellations.konturnovosti.com
4. Sector-by-Sector Breakdown
| Sector | Shortage Impact |
| Construction | ~30% shortage; projects delayed or scaled down.konturnovosti.comBusiness Standard |
| Manufacturing | ~42% of enterprises lacking staff; productivity disrupted.konturnovosti.comnewgeopolitics.org |
| Logistics & Trade | Persistent vacancies; automation emerging as workaround.The Moscow Timesainvest.com |
5. How Firms Are Responding
- Many companies are scaling down hiring, cutting costs, or delaying projects due to labour constraints and high borrowing rates.reddit.comThe Bell
- Some industries, like retail (e.g. X5 Group), are turning to automation and robotics to offset staff shortages.Reutersainvest.com
- Government leaders propose training and sourcing workers from abroad—India, among other countries, is being explored as a partner for vocational training and worker recruitment.The Moscow Times+1
🧩 Why This Matters
- Russia’s tightest labour market in decades reflects an overheated economy struggling to meet demand despite strong defense spending and industrial orders.
- With record-high wage growth outpacing productivity and profits, businesses face mounting financial pressure even if revenue holds up.The Moscow TimesIzvestia
- The shortage isn’t temporary—it’s tied to deep structural shifts, including brain drain, demographic decline, population ageing, and loss of migrant labour.
🌐 Long-Term Outlook
- Analysts estimate that Russia may face a deficit of up to 2–4 million workers by 2030, costing 1–2% of GDP annually if unresolved.newgeopolitics.orgThe Bell
- Russia’s reliance on expanding migration from new regions—like Asia and vocational programs in India—highlights growing urgency in addressing shortages.economictimes.indiatimes.comThe Moscow Times
✅ Conclusion
The labour shortage in Russia is more than a temporary hiccup—it’s a crucible testing the economy’s resilience. With dwindling workforce numbers, escalating wage demands, and diminished hiring capability, critical infrastructure and industrial projects are stalling.
To break the gridlock, the country must either automate fast, attract foreign skilled labor, retrain domestic workers, or face prolonged delays—any or all of which will shape Russia’s economic direction well into the late 2020s.